Seven weeks ago, Jeremy Corbyn and the Labour Party were staring down the barrel of a monumental defeat. A 24 point polling gap spelled disaster for the Labour Party, yet their campaign managed to turn around this mountainous deficit and get within two and a half points of the Conservatives. Labour’s election hopes to begin with were so dire they were forced to be conservative in their approach, looking to nail down safe seats as a priority. But as the campaign and their army of momentum volunteers went to work, seats that seemed previously unassailable (such as Canterbury and Kensington) fell victim to the Labour surge.
Since the election , Labour have identified seats that they feel they could win to challenge Theresa May and surpass the Tories as the largest party. A Survation poll released today actually putting Labour ahead of the Conservatives for the first time since May 2016! All that said, we wanted to look at the seats where Labour could take seats from the Tories in the event of another snap election.
Seats like Southampton Itchen, Pudsey, and, rather tantalisingly for Labour supporters, Hastings – Amber Rudd’s seat – are all within reach. Given the heavy criticism that Theresa May is coming under from her own party, Jeremy Corbyn, and the media (now the tabloids have turned on her), a second election could be held within the year – so an ambitious Labour campaign would no doubt identify these seats as up for grabs. Corbyn has openly drawn comparisons to the 1974 election year, where a minority Labour government was formed and then they consolidated on their work later in the year, ultimately winning a majority.
A coalition of Labour, SNP, Liberal Democrats, and the Greens currently makes 310 MPs, so very few seats would need to change hands to give a progressive coalition a chance at governing. Of the 45 seats we have listed here, the Labour Party would need only 16 seats to be able to form a majority progressive coalition or just 29 to form a Labour/SNP coalition, or these 45 plus a further 19 to form a Labour majority government. Unfortunately for Labour the Conservatives actually increased their vote-share in this election, so an outright Labour majority seems unlikely, though stranger things have happened in 21st century politics.
So here are our list of seats with narrow majorities! (Source: Britain Elects)
|Southampton, Itchen||England||South East||31||21,773||21,742|
|Pudsey||England||Yorkshire & Humber||331||25,550||25,219|
|Thurrock||England||East of England||345||19,880||19,535|
|Hastings & Rye||England||South East||346||25,668||25,322|
|Norwich North||England||East of England||507||21,900||21,393|
|Calder Valley||England||Yorkshire & Humber||609||26,790||26,181|
|Stoke-on-Trent South||England||West Midlands||663||20,451||19,788|
|Northampton North||England||East Midlands||807||19,065||18,258|
|Bolton West||England||North West||936||24,459||23,523|
|Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland||England||North East||1,020||23,643||22,623|
|Northampton South||England||East Midlands||1,159||19,231||18,072|
|Morecambe & Lunesdale||England||North West||1,399||21,773||20,374|
|Camborne & Redruth||England||South West||1,577||23,001||21,424|
|Finchley & Golders Green||England||London||1,657||24,599||22,942|
|Milton Keynes South||England||South East||1,725||30,652||28,927|
|Milton Keynes North||England||South East||1,915||30,307||28,392|
|Blackpool North & Cleveleys||England||North West||2,023||20,255||18,232|
|Watford||England||East of England||2,092||26,731||24,639|
|Morley & Outwood||England||Yorkshire & Humber||2,104||26,550||24,446|
|Vale of Glamorgan||Wales||Wales||2,190||25,501||23,311|
|Chingford & Woodford Green||England||London||2,438||23,076||20,638|
|South Swindon||England||South West||2,464||24,809||22,345|
|Walsall North||England||West Midlands||2,601||18,919||16,318|
|North East Derbyshire||England||East Midlands||2,861||24,784||21,923|
|Reading West||England||South East||2,876||25,311||22,435|
|Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire||Wales||Wales||3,110||19,771||16,661|
|Cities of London & Westminster||England||London||3,148||18,005||14,857|
|Rossendale & Darwen||England||North West||3,216||25,499||22,283|