Where Could Labour Target In A Second Snap Election?

Seven weeks ago, Jeremy Corbyn and the Labour Party were staring down the barrel of a monumental defeat. A 24 point polling gap spelled disaster for the Labour Party, yet their campaign managed to turn around this mountainous deficit and get within two and a half points of the Conservatives. Labour’s election hopes to begin with were so dire they were forced to be conservative in their approach, looking to nail down safe seats as a priority. But as the campaign and their army of momentum volunteers went to work, seats that seemed previously unassailable (such as Canterbury and Kensington) fell victim to the Labour surge.

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Since the election , Labour have identified seats that they feel they could win to challenge Theresa May and surpass the Tories as the largest party. A Survation poll released today actually putting Labour ahead of the Conservatives for the first time since May 2016! All that said, we wanted to look at the seats where Labour could take seats from the Tories in the event of another snap election.

Seats like Southampton Itchen, Pudsey, and, rather tantalisingly for Labour supporters, Hastings – Amber Rudd’s seat – are all within reach. Given the heavy criticism that Theresa May is coming under from her own party, Jeremy Corbyn, and the media (now the tabloids have turned on her), a second election could be held within the year – so an ambitious Labour campaign would no doubt identify these seats as up for grabs. Corbyn has openly drawn comparisons to the 1974 election year, where a minority Labour government was formed and then they consolidated on their work later in the year, ultimately winning a majority.

A coalition of Labour, SNP, Liberal Democrats, and the Greens currently makes 310 MPs, so very few seats would need to change hands to give a progressive coalition a chance at governing. Of the 45 seats we have listed here, the Labour Party would need only 16 seats to be able to form a majority progressive coalition or just 29 to form a Labour/SNP coalition, or these 45 plus a further 19 to form a Labour majority government. Unfortunately for Labour the Conservatives actually increased their vote-share in this election, so an outright Labour majority seems unlikely, though stranger things have happened in 21st century politics.

So here are our list of seats with narrow majorities! (Source: Britain Elects)

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ConstituencyCountryRegionMajorityConservativesLabour
Southampton, ItchenEnglandSouth East3121,77321,742
Preseli PembrokeshireWalesWales31418,30217,988
PudseyEnglandYorkshire & Humber33125,55025,219
ThurrockEnglandEast of England34519,88019,535
Hastings & RyeEnglandSouth East34625,66825,322
Chipping BarnetEnglandLondon35325,67925,326
Norwich NorthEnglandEast of England50721,90021,393
Calder ValleyEnglandYorkshire & Humber60926,79026,181
AberconwyWalesWales63514,33713,702
Stoke-on-Trent SouthEnglandWest Midlands66320,45119,788
TelfordEnglandWest Midlands72021,77721,057
Northampton NorthEnglandEast Midlands80719,06518,258
BroxtoweEnglandEast Midlands86325,98325,120
Bolton WestEnglandNorth West93624,45923,523
Middlesbrough South & East ClevelandEnglandNorth East1,02023,64322,623
MansfieldEnglandEast Midlands1,05723,39222,335
HendonEnglandLondon1,07625,07824,002
Northampton SouthEnglandEast Midlands1,15919,23118,072
PendleEnglandNorth West1,27921,98620,707
Morecambe & LunesdaleEnglandNorth West1,39921,77320,374
PutneyEnglandLondon1,55420,67919,125
Camborne & RedruthEnglandSouth West1,57723,00121,424
Finchley & Golders GreenEnglandLondon1,65724,59922,942
CopelandEnglandNorth West1,69521,06219,367
Milton Keynes SouthEnglandSouth East1,72530,65228,927
Harrow EastEnglandLondon1,75725,12923,372
Milton Keynes NorthEnglandSouth East1,91530,30728,392
Blackpool North & CleveleysEnglandNorth West2,02320,25518,232
WatfordEnglandEast of England2,09226,73124,639
Morley & OutwoodEnglandYorkshire & Humber2,10426,55024,446
Vale of GlamorganWalesWales2,19025,50123,311
Chingford & Woodford GreenEnglandLondon2,43823,07620,638
CrawleyEnglandSouth East2,45725,42622,969
South SwindonEnglandSouth West2,46424,80922,345
WorcesterEnglandWest Midlands2,49024,71322,223
CarlisleEnglandNorth West2,59921,47218,873
Walsall NorthEnglandWest Midlands2,60118,91916,318
CorbyEnglandEast Midlands2,69029,53426,844
North East DerbyshireEnglandEast Midlands2,86124,78421,923
Reading WestEnglandSouth East2,87625,31122,435
SouthportEnglandNorth West2,91418,54115,627
Carmarthen West & South PembrokeshireWalesWales3,11019,77116,661
Cities of London & WestminsterEnglandLondon3,14818,00514,857
Rossendale & DarwenEnglandNorth West3,21625,49922,283

7 thoughts on “Where Could Labour Target In A Second Snap Election?

  1. Don’t forget plaid cymru as part of the progressive alliance.

    The Lib Dems also have low hanging fruit in Richmond Park and St Ives, and several other seats if Labour stands down.

    1. It all depends on whether the Lib Dems and Labour are willing to work together, so that Labour would stand aside. I suspect they would run again as usual, but that the Tories would be less popular, and there would be no need to worry about standing down.

  2. Bojo’s seat of Uxbridge and South Ruislip could be here as Labour could overturn the 5000 majority or so

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